While we are not out of the woods yet, the market has responded well to the jobs. Beware the fed at 10am...
Yes, Mr. Bernanke is gracing us with his presense this morning. As you know, I'm all about timing and energy. 10am is a critical hurdle for the market intra day. We'll see how the stock market handles it. There are some developing issues over seas. I think we're setting up for a top next week.
And to think, when I was telling everyone to buy back on December 2nd, there were doubters... The question is, when I tell you to sell next week, will you listen to me?
Here's a look at the global markets:
Here's the week ahead: (It is a light week)
To help you navigate the intraday action, we have a LIVE chat room that I am in every day. We run it on PalTalk. This will allow you to hear me, and chat with others. Upgrading will also give you access to my trading screen during the day so we can go over recommendations in more detail. Here's the link to sign up:
On to the charts:
Stock Barometer Analysis
The barometer remains in Buy Mode. The market remains up, despite the bears
and over bullishness. When this happens, let price action rule your trades. We are looking for a top at the end of next week.
The Stock Barometer is my proprietary market timing system. The direction, slope and
level of the Stock Barometer determine our outlook. For example, if the barometer line is moving down, we are in Sell Mode. A Buy or Sell Signal is triggered when the indicator clearly changes direction. Trend and support can override the barometer
signals.
Money Management & Stops
To trade this system, there are a few things you need to know and address to control your risk:
- This system targets intermediate term moves, of which
even in the best years, there are usually only up to 7 profitable intermediate
term moves. The rest of the year will be consolidating moves
where this system will experience small losses and gains that offset each
other. - This system will usually result in losing trades more
than 50% of the time, even in our best years. The key is
being positioned properly for longer term moves when they come. - Therefore it is vitally important that you apply some
form of money management to protect your capital. - Trading a leveraged index fund will result in more risk,
since you cannot set stops and you cannot get out intraday.
Accordingly;
- Make sure you set your stops so that you can lose no
more than 2% per trade (based on the QQQQ if you’re trading leveraged funds and
options with our trading service).
Potential Cycle Reversal Dates
2011 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/15, 1/29, 2/16. We publish dates up to 2 months in advance.
Our next date for 2011 is January 15th. We expect the markets to surprise everyone and
continue higher into 1/15.
My Additional timing work is based on numerous cycles and has resulted in the above potential reversal dates. These are not to be confused with the barometer ignals or cycle times. However, due to their past accuracy I post the dates here.
2010 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/19, 1/28, 3/2, 3/23, 4/7, 5/30, 6/10, 6/28, 7/10, 8/13, 9/7, 10/2, 10/27, 11/21, 12/19.
We publish dates up to 2 months in advance. 2009 Published Reversal Dates: 1/20, 2/11, 3/7, 3/15, 4/8, 4/16,
4/27, 5/7, 6/8, 7/2, 7/17, 9/14, 10/10, 10/24, 11/12, 11/30, 12/9, 12/21, 12/29. 2008 Potential Reversal Dates:
12/31, 1/11, 2/1, 2/13, 3/6, 4/5, 4/22, 5/23, 6/6, 6/27, 7/13, 9/2, 10/3, 10/22, 11/10, 12/11. 2007 Potential Reversal
Dates: 1/10, 1/14, 1/27, 1/31, 2/3, 2/17, 3/10, 3/24, 4/21, 5/6, 6/15, 8/29, 10/19, 11/29, 12/13, 12/23, 12/31, 1/11/08.
2006 potential reversal dates: 1/16, 1/30, 2/25, 3/19, 4/8, 5/8, 5/19, 6/6(20), 7/24, 8/20, 8/29, 9/15, 10/11, 11/28. 2005 Potential
reversal dates: 12/27, 1/25, 2/16, 3/4, 3/14, 3/29, 4/5, 4/19, 5/2, 6/3, 6/10, 7/13, 7/28, 8/12, 8/30-31, 9/22, 10/4, 11/15, 11/20,
12/16.
Timing Indicators
Use the following Timing/momentum indicators to assist in your trading of the QQQQ, GLD, USD, USO and TLT. They are tuned to deliver signals in line with the Stock Barometer and we use them only in determining our overall outlook for the market and for pinpointing market reversals. The level, direction, and position to the zero line are keys in these indicators. For example, direction determines mode and a buy signal ’above zero’ is more bullish than a buy signal ’below zero’.
QQQQ Timing Indicator (NASDAQ:QQQQ)
The QQQQ Spread Indicator will yield its own buy and sell signals that may be different from the Stock Barometer. It’s meant to give us an idea of the next turn in the market.
Gold Timing Indicator (AMEX:GLD)
Want to trade Gold? Use our signals with the Gold ETF AMEX:GLD. Gold gives us a
general gage to the overall health of the US Economy and the markets.
US Dollar Index Timing Indicator (INDEX:DXY)
Want to trade the US Dollar? Use our signals with the Power Shares AMEX:UUP: US Dollar Index Bullish Fund and AMEX:UDN: US Dollar Index Bearish Fund.
Bonds Timing Indicator (AMEX:TLT)
Want to trade Bonds? Use our signals with Lehman?s 20 year ETF AMEX:TLT. The direction of bonds has an impact on the stock market. Normally, as bonds go down, stocks will go up and as bonds go up, stocks will go down.
OIL Timing Indicator (AMEX:USO)
Want to trade OIL? Use our signals with AMEX:USO, the OIL ETF. We look at the price
of oil as its level and direction has an impact on the stock market.
Secondary Stock Market Timing Indicator
We daily monitor hundreds of popular and proprietary technical indicators that break down market internals, sentiment and money flow to give us unique insight into the market. We
feature at least one here each day in support of our current outlook. As an annual subscriber to any of our services, you will get access to all our charts and research.
Daily Stock Market Outlook
We remain in Buy Mode, looking for the markets to move higher into mid January.
Our view on the markets is that we may have a breadth explosion to the upside. If this happens, markets are going to go higher then anyone can imagine at this time. What's the fuel? Bonds.
We have our stock trading secrets class this saturday, let me know if you have any questions.
Click here for Free Trading Webinars, eBooks and Special Offers.
If you're interested in attending a presentation of my Stock Trading Secrets Session, it will be held on Saturday January 8th, 2011 from 10am to 2pm. This is an online class designed for beginner to intermediate traders. I've had people take it multiple times because the theme changes along with the current market conditions. We will be holding these sessions on a monthly basis. Here's the link to sign up: (It's only $39.95 - and would make a great holiday gift too.)
For my clients who trade intra day - here are the indices pivots for today’s trade.
I publish charts of the ES and Qs with pivots in the chat room every morning. Join me in the chat room if you want to see them, and learn how to use them.
Here’s a deeper look at the S&P Futures - these levels are very important if you’re going to day trade the market.
These levels are important for both day traders and investors. How? Well, if you are going to take a stock position, it’s always best to get the most efficient entry. Understanding that there
are key pivots during the day and key levels that futures traders look for, will help you figure a better entry price (instead of just buying at the open). Combine these levels with the timing of the economic reports on the list at the top of the page, and you can really catch some nice swings in the market. More efficient trade entry increases your relative profit per trade.
If you have any questions or comments, email me at Jay@stockbarometer.com.
Regards,
Investment Research Group,
Inc.
"Over 1540 Clients in 40 countries!"
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